威权主义国家中的经济状况逐年提高

20世纪70年代以来，威权主义国家试图通过发展经济来提高统治的合法性，借助国外资本与技术，推行工业发展计划，利用政治干预的手段，竭力振兴本国的民族经济。应当承认，在追求经济增长的过程当中，多数威权主义国家的经济状况有所好转，国民生产总值有了明显提高，财政收入逐年增加，国民的生活状况也得到了不同程度的改善，教育、医疗等公共投入也有了长足的进步。但是，威权主义政权的性质决定了，国家不可能推行普遍的社会福利政策，国家利益在任何时候都高于个人利益，在统治者眼中，社会从来都是国家的敌人，对社会实施强制是绝对必要的，社会的贫困化和原子化是威权政权所期望的。然而，经济发展却带来了威权者不愿意看到的结果。社会尽管没有完全从增长战略中摆脱贫困，但是，社会结构开始从传统的状态下进行分化，对应于工业化和市场经济的新的社会角色、新的观念以及新的社会组织，从传统的社会结构中成长起来。新的社会结构不再支撑威权主义的统治，而是开始了颠覆威权政权的斗争历程。

经济发展造就了一个多元的社会结构，它在很大程度上可以塑造威权主义政权的政治结构。在经济不发展的状态下，独裁者的统治要容易地多，因为社会基本上维持在村社的水平，国民之间跨地域的流动十分罕见，阶级成员基本上都是农民，他们受教育的程度很低，阶级意识和阶级觉悟还处于蒙昧状态，除非被逼无奈，他们不会公开表达对政府的不满，大规模的集体行动很难被组织起来，他们的经济依附关系还没有扩展到全国政府，大多和当地地主发生关系。经济上的自给自足、封闭的社会关系和简单的阶级联系，将全国性政治降低到地区性的水平。这种比较单一的社会结构特别有利于个人独裁的威权主义政权的统治。对于一党制和军人政权来说，封闭而简单的社会结构显然不符合它们的政治需求，因为它们建立的是大众参与的政治，公众的支持是其合法性的来源，因此，在这两类政权当中，传统的社会结构被打破，村社政治被合并到全国性政治当中来，政党利用政治动员的方式，以意识形态来鼓励更多的群众积极参与政治。但是，一党制和军人政权的本质并非是大众政治，个人的权利与意志难以得到保障和自由表达，独裁者动员公众的目的，只不过是希望借助他们狂热的非理性来维持虚幻的政治乌托邦而已。个人对物质资料的需求是由国家按计划提供的，个人的精神需求是由国家按计划提供的，个人的活动是由国家按计划组织的。尽管这些威权国家有现代社会分工，但是，国家之外的社会形态几乎是不存在的，整个社会都变成了国家的附属品，在缺少资源的情况下，从国家内部来挑战国家是难以想象的。

20世纪70年代以来的形势发展，从短期来看有利于威权者的统治，但是，从长期来看，经济发展使传统的社会结构变得更加多元。新阶级、新思想和新组织都是传统社会无法想象的事情。多元的社会结构对政治来说意味着什么呢？罗伯特·达尔指出，“一个现代的、有活力的多元社会将权力、影响力、权威和控制力从单一的中心分散到许多不同的个人、集团、社团和组织”。^[120]这种结构在民主社会有利于形成权力之间的相互制约，而在威权主义社会则有利于社会的成长，摆脱国家的依附与强制。因此，斯蒂芬·哈格德和罗伯特·R. 考夫曼认为，多元社会的发展提高了强制相对于容忍的成本，并因此提高了威权统治者默认政治自由化和民主改革压力的几率。^[121]可以说，社会越是多元，威权统治的成本越高，强制的可能性越小。独裁者忌讳强制手段使用的另一个原因是，社会积累了相当多的物质财富，一方面，社会成员可以凭借自身的资源逃避威权的控制，另一方面，社会财富在很多情况下是独裁者统治的物质基础，大量税收需要由这些新阶级提供，特别是在战争和经济危机的时候，独裁者对新有产阶级的依附更加明显。亨廷顿敏锐地发现，“涉及一些更大工业化的经济发展会导致新的、更加多样的、复杂的和互赖的经济，这种经济对威权政权来说越来越难以驾驭；经济发展造就了新的财富和权力来源，这些来源独立于国家之外，而且会有新的功能性要求去分散决策权；更加直接的是，经济发展似乎促进了社会结构的变迁与鼓励民主化的价值观。”^[122]

从行动者角度来说，经济发展催生了威权主义社会反独裁的力量，新的阶级不同于传统意义上的农民，他们脱胎于工业社会，同时又是现代社会的反对派。与现代经济的天然联系也为新阶级的集体行动创造了可能的条件：城市化为集体行动提供了便利的共同行动的地理空间，出版物的传播塑造了抗议诉求，现代通讯技术方便了行动者的相互联络。工人、学生、知识分子、中产阶级这些现代社会角色，尽管他们从威权者那里得到的回报各不相同，但是，他们都最终与威权主义政权进行决裂。对于工人阶级来说，他们受到资本和国家的双重剥削，微薄的工资和恶劣的工作条件经常迫使他们通过抗议资本家来抗议政府，在长期的斗争当中，工人们似乎明白资本家与政府之间的利益关联，因此，仅仅抗议资本家是难以改善现有的条件。工人阶级让资本家和政府最感到头疼的是，他们主要利用自己在工业经济中的独特地位，经常性地组织罢工、围堵工厂、破坏机器等，直接的经济损失迫使政府与工人们进行谈判，有时会作出一定的让步。学生和知识分子并非一个受剥削的群体，但是，他们的特殊的社会角色将他们推到民主转型的前沿阵地，对独裁者来说，知识分子的最致命之处，是将威权主义政权统治的神圣外衣揭露得体无完肤，使得更多过去受威权统治蒙蔽的人开始觉醒，并行动起来背弃威权主义的统治。他们对下层阶级的同情以及对独裁者和上层阶级的憎恨，鼓励他们行动起来，捍卫民主事业。中产阶级既是一个受益的群体也是一个受剥削的群体。他们依附于独裁者而富裕起来，但是，他们在财富积累的过程当中经常受政策的波动和政府限制的影响，并且深受政府腐败之苦，从追求利润这个角度来讲，中产阶级希望摆脱对独裁者的依附，独立自主地经营自己的事业。中产阶级与独裁者的分裂尤其发生在经济危机的时候。经济下滑和恶化对私人部门具有毁灭性的打击，在大多数威权国家，进口替代产业受到政府政策的严重挤压，秘鲁的企业肯定会对军人政权的第一阶段内的民粹主义的说辞和政策感到忧虑，而菲律宾的企业则抱怨国家给予马科斯的亲信们太多的优待。^[123]可以肯定的是，中产阶级在民主转型的开始阶段是保守的，但是，随着民主转型形势的逐渐明朗，他们最终会加入到对抗威权的队伍中去。

对应于新阶级的出现，新的价值与观念也开始在他们当中流传。伴随着工业化的发展进程是，全国的教育水平得到了相应的提高和改善，农民不再是目不识丁的“乡巴佬”，他们经过城市化而进入工厂，经常性地接触媒体和各种新鲜事物，扩大了他们的视野，改造了价值观。在这些新阶级当中，个人的权利观念得到加强，他们不再把自己看作天生就是臣民，并且认定，自己的社会状况是由独裁政权造成的，要想实现社会平等只有经过斗争才能获得。我们虽然不能说，自由和平等观念的广泛传播其全部原因是社会变迁，但是，如果没有社会变迁，这些观念至少不可能被新阶级得到充分的认知和理解。在新阶级中间盛行的新价值观念对威权统治是一个致命的打击，因为支撑政治统治的政治信任消失了，合法性变成了一座空中楼阁，不经意的外力都有可能将其摧毁。虽然大量的威权主义政权在失去政治信任之后还仍然能够勉强维持统治，但是，其崩溃速度也是惊人的，有的甚至是一夜之间的事情。

如果说新阶级的出现和新观念的形成只是民主转型虚拟条件，那么新的社会组织的大量涌现则是推动民主化运动的直接而真实的条件。不论新阶级的队伍有多么强大，也不论新价值观念有多么地反独裁，如果社会当中缺少一个将他们结合在一起的载体，阶级和价值的力量无论如何都无法将威权主义政权推向崩溃的边缘。社会组织的优势就在于可以放大阶级和价值的作用，通过有效的斗争策略，发动声势巨大的社会动员，制造持久的政治压力，从而改变政策和制度。社会组织网络是社会行动者的行动框架，社会怨恨在组织当中能够得到塑造和伸张，个人利益可以通过集体行动得到保护，价值观念可以在参与当中得到提炼和升华。我们在后面的研究当中很容易地发现，任何一个对威权主义政权构成政治威胁的集体行动，都离不开有组织的动员，无组织的抗议多数情况下是骚乱，其持续时间短暂，政治影响很小，对民主转型来说其作用是有限的。只有经过组织精心策划和动员的集体行动，它的民主转型的作用才能够凸显出来。在很多实现民主转型的社会中，我们会发现大量社会组织演变成反对党的实例，这些政党在威权统治下只是一些名不见经传的社会组织，经过长期的斗争实践，它们从地方性社会组织发展为全国性的政治组织，公开将推行民主改革和竞争政治职位作为自己的目标，在一定的条件下，它们战胜了威权者，赢得了选举的胜利。

注释

[1]　参见Samuel P. Huntington (1991), The Third Wave, Norman: University of Oklahoma Press。

[2]　Barbara Geddes, "What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years?" Annual Review of Political Science, 1999, 2:115—144.

[3]　参见Guillermo A. O'Donnell (1973), Modernization and Bureaucratic-Authoritarianism, Berkeley: University of California。

[4]　参见Juan Linz (1975), Totalitarian and Authoritarian Regimes, Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner。

[5]　T. Skidmore and P. Smith (1997), Modern Latin America, Oxford: Oxford University Press, p. 57.

[6]　Larry Diamond, "Thinking about Hybrid Regimes", Journal of Democracy, Volume 13, No. 2, April 2002.

[7]　Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way, "The Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism", Journal of Democracy, Vol. 13, No. 2, 2002.

[8]　Marc Morjé Howard and Philip G. Roessler, "Liberalizing Electoral Outcomes in Competitive Authoritarian Regimes", American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 50, No. 2, (Apr., 2006), pp. 365—381.

[9]　Axel Hadenius and Jan Teorell, "Pathways from Authoritarianism", Journal of Democracy, Vol. 18, No. 1, 2007.

[10]　Guillermo O'Donnell, "Delegative Democracy", Journal of Democracy Vol. 5, No. 1 January 1994.

[11]　Teven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way, "The Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism", Journal of Democracy, Vol. 13, No. 2, 2002.

[12]　H. E. Chehabi and Juan Linz (1998), Sultanistic Regimes, Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, pp. 3—25.

[13]　Michael Bratton and Nicolas Van de Walle, "Neopatrimonial Regimes and Political Transitions in Africa", World Politics, Vol. 46, No. 4. (Jul., 1994), pp. 453—489.

[14]Jay Ulfelder, "Contentious Collective Action and the Breakdown of Authoritarian Regimes", International Political Science Review (2005), Vol. 26, No. 3, p. 315.

[15]Jay Ulfelder, "Contentious Collective Action and the Breakdown of Authoritarian Regimes", International Political Science Review (2005), Vol. 26, No. 3, p. 315.

[16]　H. E. Chehabi and Juan Linz (1998), Sultanistic Regimes, Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, p. 53.

[17]　Ibid, p. 54.

[18]　Jeff Goodwin and Theda Skocpol, "Explaining Revolutions in the Contemporary Third World", Politics and Society, Vol. 17, No. 4 (December, 1989), p. 504.

[19]　Giovanni Sartori (1976), Parties and Party Systems, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, p. 230.

[20]　Samuel P. Huntington, "Social and Institutional Dynamics of One-Party Systems", in Authoritarian Politics in Modern Society: The Dynamics of Established One-Party Systems, edt by Samuel P. Huntington and Clement H. Moore, New York: Basic Books, Inc., Publishers, 1970.

[21]　Barbara Geddes, "What Do We Know about Democratization After Twenty Years?" Annual Reviews of Political Science, 1999, 2:115—144.

[22]　Howard J. Wiarda, "Toward a Framework for the Study of Political Change in the Iberic-American Tradition: The Corporative Model", World Politics 25 (January 1973); and Ronald C. Newton, "On Functional Groups, 'Fragmentation' and 'Pluralism' in Latin American Society", Hispanic American Historical Review 50 (February 1970).

[23]　See Guillermo O'Donnell, Modernization and Bureaucratic Authoritarianism: Studies in South American Politics, Institute of International Studies, Politics of Modernization Series, no. 9 (Berkeley: University of California, 1973), p. 62.

[24]　Samuel Finer (1975), The Man on Horseback: The Role of the Military in Politics, Penguin Books Ltd., pp. 149—167.

[25]　Samuel P. Huntington (1957), The Solider and The State: The Theory and Politics of Civil-Military Relations, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, pp. 71—73.

[26]　Barbara Geddes, "What Do We Know about Democratization After Twenty Years?" Annual Reviews of Political Science, 1999, 2: 115—144.

[27]　Henry Bienen, "Military Rule and Political Process: Nigerian Examples", Comparative Politics, Vol. 10, No. 2. (Jan., 1978), pp. 205—225.

[28]　参见Nordlinger E. (1977), Soldiers in Politics: Military Coups and Governments, Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, pp. 224; Huntington (1991), The Third Wave, p. 366。

[29]　Theda Skocpol (1979), State and Social Revolution, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, p. 27.

[30]　Peter B. Evans, Dietrich Rueschemeyer, and Theda Skocpol (1985), eds., Bringing the State Back In, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, p. 9.

[31]　参见Joel S. Migdal (1988), Strong Societies and Weak States: State-Society Relations and State Capabilities in the Third World, NJ: Princeton University Press; State in Society, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001。

[32]　S. Huntington and Joan M. Nelson (1976), No Easy Choice: Political Participation in Developing Countries, Cambridge, M. : Harvard University Press, p. 28.

[33]　Jeff Goodwin and Theda Skocpol, "Explaining Revolutions in the Contemporary Third World", Politics and Society, Vol. 17, No. 4 (December 1989), pp. 494—495.

[34]　Philippe C. Schmitter, "Still the Century of Corporatism?" The Review of Politics, Vol. 36, No. 1, (Jan., 1974), pp.85—131.

[35]　Howard J. Wiarda (2004), Political Development in Emerging Nations: Is There Still a Third World? Wadsworth, p. 62.

[36]　See "Cooptation as a Mechanism of Adaptation to Change: The Soviet Political Leadership System", Frederic J. Fleron, Jr., Polity, Vol. 2, No. 2, (Winter, 1969), pp. 176—201.

[37]　Susan Kaufman Purcell, "Decision-Making in an Authoritarian Regime: Theoretical Implications from a Mexican Case Study", World Politics, Vol. 26, No. 1, (Oct., 1973), pp. 28—54.

[38]　Vivienne Shue, "State Power and Social Organization in China", in State Power and Social Forces, edited by Joel. S. Migdal etc., Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994, pp. 65—88.

[39]　Mehran Kamrava (2000), Politics and Society in the Developing World, New York: Rout ledge, p. 4.

[40]　Amarty Sen, "Democracy As a Universal Value", in The Divergence of Democracy, edited by Larry Diamond and Marc Plattner, Baltimore: The Hopkins University Press, 2001, pp. 7—8.

[41]　Politics and Society in the Developing World, p. 50.

[42]　Samuel Mushi, "Communities Development in Tanzania", in Ronald Dore and Zoc Mars (eds), Community Development (London: Croom Helm, 1981), pp. 145—146.

[43]　S. C. Dube (1988), Modernization and Development: The Search of Alternative Paradigm, Tokyo: United Nations University, pp. 6—7.

[44]　Jonathon Chileshe (1986), The Third World Countries and Development Options: Zambia, New Delhi: Vikas, p. 54.

[45]　Mehran Kamrava (2000), Politics and Society in the Developing World, New York: Rout ledge, p. 42.

[46]　Howard J. Wiarda (2004), Political Development in Emerging Nations: Is There Still a Third World? Wadsworth, pp. 118—119.

[47]　Howard J. Wiarda (2004), Political Development in Emerging Nations: Is There Still a Third World? Wadsworth, p. 118.

[48]　Political Development in Emerging Nations: Is There Still a Third World? Wadsworth, p. 117.

[49]　Richard Higgot (1983), Political Development Theory: Contemporary Debate, London: Croom Helm, p. 35.

[50]　Rose Spalding, "State Power and its Limits: Corporatism in Mexico", Comparative Political Studies, Vol. 14, No.2 (July 1981), p. 155.

[51]　Mehran Kamrava (2000), Politics and Society in the Developing World, New York: Routledge, pp. 1—42.

[52]　Richard Higgot (1983), Political Development Theory, p. 37.

[53]　T. G. McGee, "The Persistence of the Proto-proletariat: Occupational Structures and Planning of the Future of Third World Cities", in Janet Abu-Lughod and Richard Hay (eds), Third World Urbanization (Chicago: Maaroufa Press, 1977), pp. 267—268.

[54]　Val Moghadam, "Industrial Development, Culture, and Working Class Politics: A Case Study of Tabriz Industrial Workers in the Iranian Revolution", International Sociology, Vol. 2, No. 2 (June 1987), p. 165.

[55]　Paul Cammack, David Pool, and William Tordoff (1988), Third World Politics: A Comparative Introduction, Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, p. 252.

[56]　The Europe Yearbook 1989, 30^th edition (London: Europe Publication, 1989), Vol. 1 and 2.

[57]　Wayne Rohrer, "Developing Third World Farming: Conflict between Modern Imperatives and Traditional Ways", Economic Development and Culture Change, Vol. 34, No. 2 (January 1986), p. 303.

[58]　在斯科特的著作里，我们很容易地就能够找到这种实例，农民用“日常抵抗”的形式抵制地主使用大型收割机。James Scott(1985), Weapons of the Weak: Everyday Forms of Peasant Resistance, New Haven: Yale University Press。

[59]　Wayne Rohrer, "Developing Third World Farming: Conflict between Modern Imperatives and Traditional Ways", Economic Development and Culture Change, Vol. 34, No. 2 (January 1986), p. 309.(www.chuimin.cn)

[60]　Ibid, p. 93.

[61]　Adam　Przeworski, Michael E. Alvarez, José Antonio Cheibub and Fernando Limongi (2000), Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950—1990, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, p. 218.

[62]　Ozzie Simmons (1988), Perspectives on Development and Population Growth in the Third World, London: Plenum, p. 47.

[63]　Michael Lipton, "Why Poor People Stay Poor: Urban Bias in World Development", in Josef Gugler (ed), The Urbanization of the Third World, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1988, p. 43.

[64]　Johannes Linn, "The Cost of Democracy in the Developing Countries", Economic Develop ment and Cultural Change, Vol. 30, No. 3 (April 1982), p. 632.

[65]　Bryan Roberts (1978), Cities of Peasants: The Political Economy of Third World Urbanization, London: Sage, p. 89.

[66]　Oded Stark and David Lavhari, "On Migration and Risk in the LDC's", Economic Develop ment and Cultural Change, Vol. 31, No. 1 (October 1982), p. 192.

[67]　Mehran Kamrava, Politics and Society in the Developing World, p. 74.

[68]　Alan Gilbert and Josef Gugler (1982), Cities, Poverty, and Development: Urbanization in the Third World, Oxford: Oxford University Press, p. 60.

[69]　Alan Gilbert and Josef Gugler, Cities, Poverty, and Development: Urbanization in the Third World, p. 59.

[70]　Joan Nelson, Access to Power: Politics and the Urban Poor in Developing Nations, p. 81.>　Joan Nelson, Access to Power: Politics and the Urban Poor in Developing Nations, p. 81.

[71]　Larissa Lomnitz, "The Social and Economic Organization of a Mexican Shantytown", in Josef Gugler (ed), The Urbanization of the Third World, p. 242.

[72]　Larissa Lomnitz, "The Social and Economic Organization of a Mexican Shantytown", in Josef Gugler (ed), The Urbanization of the Third World, p. 245.

[73]　Charles Tilly (2005), Identities, Boundaries and Social Ties, London: Paradigm Publishers, p. 159.

[74]　Joan Nelson, Access to Power, p. 141.

[75]　Access to Power, p. 217.

[76]　Dennis Rondinelli (1983), Secondary Cities in Developing Countries, London: Sage, p. 48.

[77]　Mehran Kamrava, Politics and Society in the Developing World, p. 76.

[78]　Dennis Rondinelli, Secondary Cities in Developing Countries, London: Sage, pp. 59—60.

[79]　Dennis Rondinelli, Secondary Cities in Developing Countries, London: Sage, p. 78.

[80]　Ibid, pp. 151—153.

[81]　Political Order in Changing Societies, p. 72.

[82]　F. A. Hayek (1972), The Road to Serfdom, London: Routledge and Kegan Paul, p. 70.

[83]　Ibid, p. 70.

[84]　Yasheng Huang, "The Next Asian Miracle", Foreign Policy, July 2008.

[85]　Political Order in Changing Societies, p. 57.

[86]　The Political Economy if Democratic Transitions, pp. 46—49.

[87]　Ibid, p. 53.

[88]　Political Order of Changing Societies, pp. 41—52.

[89]　Edward N. Muller, "Income Inequality, Regime Repressiveness, and Political Violence", American Sociological Review, Vol. 50, No. 1. (Feb., 1985), pp. 47—61．还可以参见他的另一篇文章："Income Inequality and Political Violence: The Effect of Influential Cases", American Sociology Review, Vol. 51, No. 3. (Jun., 1986), pp. 441—445。

[90]　Hermann Strasser and Susan Randall (1981), An Introduction to Theories of Social Change, London: Routledge & Kegan Paul, p. 23.

[91]　Mehran Kamrava, Politics and Society in the Developing World, p. 95.

[92]　Ibid, p. 97.

[93]　Vickey Randall and Robin Theobald (1998), Political Change and Underdevelopment: A Critical Introduction to Third World Politics, Duke University Press, p. 59.

[94]　关于帕森斯的社会变迁的“新进化”理论，参见Societies: Evolutionary and Comparative Perspectives, (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1966), and "Evolutionary Universals in Society", in T. Parson(ed. ) Sociological Theory and Modern Society. (New York: Free Press, 1967)。

[95]　Mehran Kamrava, Politics and Society in the Developing World, pp. 102—103.

[96]　W. F. Ogburn (1933), Social. Change, New York: Viking Press, p. 200.

[97]　Jacques Ellul (1973), Propaganda: The Formation of Men's Attitudes, New York: Vin-tage, pp. 62—70.

[98]　Douglas Ashford, "Attitudinal Change and Modernization", in Chandler Morse et al , Modernization by Design, New York: Cornell University Press, 1969, p. 158.

[99]　Eric Hobsbawm (1995), Age of Extremes: The Short Twentieth Century, Abacus, p. 346.

[100]　Mehran Kamrava, Politics and Society in the Developing World, p. 110.

[101]　Samuel P. Huntington (1968), Political Order in Changing Societies, New Haven: Yale University Press, pp. 1—92.

[102]　Mehran Kamrava, Politics and Society in the Developing World, p. 115.

[103]　Ruth B. Collier (1999), Paths Toward Democracy: The Working Class and Elites in Western Europe and South America, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

[104]　James Petras (1970), Politics and Social Structure in Latin America, New York: Monthly Review Press, p. 15.

[105]　Edward Shils, "The Intellectuals in the Political Development of The New States", in Political Change in Underdeveloped Countries: Nationalism and Communism, edited by John H. Kautsky, New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1962, p. 200.

[106]　Edward Shils, "The Intellectuals in the Political Development of The New States", p. 205.

[107]　Mehran Kamrava, Politics and Society in the Developing World, p. 194.

[108]　Gianfranco Poggi (1978), The Development of the Modern State, Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, pp. 77—85.

[109]　Michael Bernhard, "Civil Society and Democratic Transition in East Central Europe", Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 108, No. 2. (Summer, 1993), pp. 307—326.

[110]　Mehran Karava and Frank O. Mora, "Civil Society and Democratization in Comparative Perspective: Latin America and the Middle East", Third World Quarterly, Vol. 19, No. 5 (Dec., 1998), pp. 893—915..

[111]　Linz and Stepan (1996), Problems of Democratic Consolidation, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.

[112]　Robert Putnam (1993), Making Democracy Work: Civic Traditions in Modern Italy, Princeton: Princeton University Press.

[113]　Thomas Carothers and William Barndt, "Civil Society", Foreign Policy, No. 117, (Winter, 1999—2000), pp.18—29.

[114]　Guillermo O'Donnell and Philippe C. Schmitter (1986), Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies, Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, p. 49.

[115]　The Third Wave, p. 69.

[116]　Victor M. Pérez-Diaz (1993), The Return of Civil Society: The Emergence of Democratic Spain, Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, pp. 106—107.

[117]　Michael Bernhard, "Civil Society and Democratic Transition in East Central Europe", Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 108, No. 2. (Summer, 1993), pp. 307—326.

[118]　Philippe C. Schmitter, "Still the Century of Corporatism?" The Review of Politics, Vol. 36, No. 1, (Jan., 1974), pp. 85—131.

[119]　Marcia A. Weigle and Jim Butterfield, "Civil Society in Reforming Communist Regimes: The Logic of Emergence", Comparative Politics, Vol. 25, No. 1, (Oct., 1992), pp. 1—23.

[120]　Robert Dahl (1989), The Democracy and Its Critics, New Haven: Yale University Press, p. 252.

[121]　Stephan Haggard and Robert R. Kaufman (1995), The Political Economy of Democratic Transition, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, p. 27.

[122]　The Third Wave, p. 65.

[123]　The Political Economy of Democratic Transition, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, p. 53.